The latest Hamas/Israel war has us transfixed like no other. First came the attacks on Israel on October 7 by Hamas, then the devastating IDF counterattack on Hamas in Gaza, followed by the tit for tat attacks between Israel and Iran. This is more than a war between Israel and Hamas or Hezbollah.
After the Abrahamic accords a friend in the Sunni Arab world told me that he was sure that an Iranian surrogate would initiate a war with Israel to halt its reproachment with the Sunni nations. After October 7 the same friend and others have suggested that Hamas launched the attack on behalf of its patron and religious partner Iran to stop the rumored treaty between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Since Iran has been in conflict with both countries, did they want to break the impending coalition of their ideological enemies? If so, that makes this a proxy war with Israel fighting Hamas and Hezbollah, Islamists parties aligned with Iran, Israel and the secular Sunni world. Is this a war of competing ideologies between the religious Shi’ite government of Iran and the more business-oriented Sunni governments of the region in a struggle for the soul of the Middle East?
The October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel were a declaration of war, raising the question, “What could have driven Hamas to such a suicidal attack, knowing that the massive response by Israel’s superior military would be devastating to Hamas and the people of Gaza?”
Civilians in Gaza caught between the opposing forces in this war have nowhere to go. Gaza is ensconced between Israel and Egypt, and previously Gaza had belonged to Egypt. After Israel won the 1967 war, Egypt refused to take back Gaza. No Arab country would take it, and Israel eventually turned it over to the Palestinian Authority to rule. Hamas killed the Palestinian Authority officials and took complete control of Gaza, making itself an enemy with the PA, Egypt, and Israel. In the meantime, Egypt built an impassable barrier along its border with Gaza to keep Gazans out of Egypt. Hamas has few friends in the Sunni Arab world.
As a religious organization Hamas aligned itself with Iran as an Islamic party dedicated to the destruction of Israel. This current war is not only for the survival of Israel, but it is one step in determining whether religious Iran or a somewhat more secular Saudi Arabia will dominate the Middle East and be the standard bearer for Islam. When Iran attacked Israel with 300 drones on April 13, a coalition of military forces from Israel, the United States, the United Kingdom, Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia went on high alert to provide a shield to stop the attack. Sunni states lined up with Israel against the Shi’ite barrage.
Was the religious Shi’ite government of Iran so threatened by growing links between the secular, business world of the Israeli and Sunni governments that it had to launch this war to stop it? The war in Gaza looks like one front in a proxy war with Iran with dangerous trigger points to the north with Hezbollah and to the South with the Houthis. Increasingly, it looks like the Hamas attacks of October 7 were a stopgap measure against the alliance of Israel and Saudi Arabia. Although the rich oil fields of Iran and Saudi Arabia are perhaps too vulnerable to warrant a wider war, Iran has made its statement.
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